水 瓶 物 語 ™

Weaken

看原文：找出結論和推出該結論的前提。特別注意結論的特殊性和具體性。
找答案：用結論的具體性去區分有關無關，並結合TEST。對於特殊類，先預測出答案，用此預測去找答案
TEST：問自己，是否該答案使作者再考慮他的觀點或迫使作者做出反應或原文該前提能證明該結論嗎。
幾種特殊類型：
原文前提和結論關係不密切：正確選項直接WEAKEN削弱結論
因果型結論：即原文給出兩件事，然後得出結論說是一件事（因）導致另一件事（果）。

WEAKEN該結論的方法包括：

A。是其他原因或可能導致該結果。

B。割斷因果：或有因無果或有果無因。

C。因果顛倒了。

D。顯示因果關係的資料不準確。

條件型結論：結論帶條件（即為充分必要）。WEAKEN的方法顯示充分條件成立，必要條件可以不成立即充分推不出必要。或舉反例，或提供有關信息。
原文是類比：WEAKEN方式為兩者本質不同
調查：有效性受懷疑（被調查的沒代表性等）

 Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion drawn in the passage?

 2. The average life expectancy for the United States population as a whole is 73.9 years, but children born in Hawaii will live an average of 77 years, and those born in Louisiana, 71.7 years. If a newlywed couple from Louisiana were to begin their family in Hawaii, therefore, their children would be expected to live longer than would be the case if the family remained in Louisiana.

前提文中給出2個居住地的壽命資料

結論比較特殊的地方是 IF 開頭 THEREFORE 結尾 不是 IF THEN 所以沒有充分必要關係 是因果關係

根據Lawyer 分析的 應是因果結論型  移居Hawaii因   可以長壽果

方法有四種 先用結論的具體性去區分有關無關

A. Insurance company statisticians do not believe that moving to Hawaii will significantly lengthen the average Louisianan’s life.

B. The governor of Louisiana has falsely alleged that statistics for his state are inaccurate.

C. The longevity ascribed to Hawaii’s current population is attributable mostly to genetically determined factors.

受遺傳因素影響 取非 住在Hawaii會長壽不是受遺傳因素影響 換言之是受環境影響  反而加強了結論  

D. Thirty percent of all Louisianans can expect to live longer than 77 years.

E. Most of the Hawaiian Islands have levels of air pollution well below the national average for the United States.

Which of the following strategies would be most likely to minimize Company X's losses on the policies?
 

4. Insurance Company X is considering issuing a new policy to cover services required by elderly people who suffer from diseases that afflict the elderly. Premiums for the policy must be low enough to attract customers. Therefore, Company X is concerned that the income from the policies would not be sufficient to pay for the claims that would be made.

保險公司X正考慮發行一種可以cover 過正遭受因年老疾病痛苦產生費用的保險案

保險費必須低價以吸引顧客 因此  公司擔心保費收入會不足以負擔所需的支出

這句雖然只有must be  therefore還是有因果關係  言下之意是 保費收入太低因以致於賠錢果

lawyer神說 對於特殊類，先預測出答案，用此預測去找答案 

好吧那就因推不出果好了 也就是有收入 但不會賠錢 換言之有保險的人大部分都很健康
A. Attracting middle-aged customers unlikely to submit claims for benefits for many years.

中年人在將來的幾年內不會要求賠付費用 取非 連中年人也要索取保費 賠錢
B. Insuring only those individuals who did not suffer any serious diseases as children
C. Including a greater number of services in the policy than are included in other policies of  lower cost
D. Insuring only those individuals who were rejected by other companies for similar policies
E. Insuring only those individuals who are wealthy enough to pay for the medical services

Which of the following, if true, is the most appropriate reason for parents NOT to participate in the program?

5.A program instituted in a particular state allows parents to prepay their children’s future college tuition at current rates. The program then pays the tuition annually for the child at any of the state’s public colleges in which the child enrolls. Parents should participate in the program as a means of decreasing the cost for their children’s college education.

在現存的利率下預付學費

現在付錢供以後上大學   目的是decreasing the cost 

想一想在哪種情況下不會decreasing the cost  也就是說現在付錢反而貴哦就不能減低成本了

A. the parents are unsure about which public college in the state the child will attend. 跟上哪所大學沒關係

預付款存放到付利息的帳戶中所積累起來的錢大於任何大學的學費 取非 預付款與利息所累積起來的錢小於未來要付的學費 反而加強結論

C. The annual cost of tuition at the state’s public colleges is expected to increase at a faster rate than the annual increase in the cost of living.

不再討論範圍內

D. Some of the state’s public colleges are contemplating large increases in tuition next year. 無關

E. The prepayment plan would not cover the cost of room and board at any of the state’s public colleges. 著眼點是可以減低parent cost嗎

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the argument concerning overall consumer legal costs?

12. The fewer restrictions there are on the advertising of legal services, the more lawyers there are who advertise their services, and the lawyers who advertise a specific service usually charge less for that service than lawyers who do not advertise. Therefore, if the state removes any of its current restrictions, such as the one against advertisements that do not specify fee arrangements, overall consumer legal costs will be lower than if the state retains its current restrictions.

 這題是說愈少法律服務在廣告上的限制 愈多律師廣告他們的法律服務所服務的費用通常比沒有廣告的律師還低

因此如果洲政府移除了現在的禁令如廣告不具體指定費用範圍的話 所有消費者服務費會比保留此法令時的服務費還來的低

所以本文是利用條件句if the state removes 移除廣告禁令因 legal costs will be 來達到降低費用的方法果

restriction限制了廣告：取消restriction，廣告就多了：廣告多了，價格就降了

該題結論是條件句。也就是說作者得出結論是有條件限制的。B否定了該條件，就超出了作者得出結論的範圍。所以對結論不起作用。

begin是關鍵，usually不是。文中說做廣告的律師多數情況下收費較低（說的是大體情況，廣告做一定時間後的情況）。E說的是剛剛做廣告時收費高，從而WEAKEN律師費會減少的預言。

對問題： 我只分兩種題目類型： 從上倒下， 還是從下到上。

從上倒下： 就是歸納。

從下到上： 就是演繹。

對正文： 我只分兩個部分， 一個是前提， 一個是結論。

A. The state has recently removed some other restrictions that had limited the advertising of legal services. 現在作了什麼， 是無關的。

B. The state is unlikely to remove all of the restrictions that apply solely to the advertising of legal services.

不大會取消所有的限制 也是無關的

C. Lawyers who do not advertise generally provide legal services of the same quality as those provided by lawyers who do advertise.

跟quality品質無關

D. Most lawyers who now specify fee arrangements in their advertisements would continue to do so even if the specification were not required.

討論是不是明確費用的問題， 所以也是無關 

E. Most lawyers who advertise specific services do not lower their fees for those services when they begin to advertise.

這題說在他們剛開始做廣告的時候most律師不會降低他們的費用，不正好說明了在這些律師開始做廣告的時候，legal costs不會下降嗎？反對了結論    取非   開始作廣告的時候會下降費用 支持結論

這題快講濫了

The fewer restrictions there are on the advertising of legal services, the more lawyers there

are who advertise their services, and the lawyers who advertise a specific service usually

charge less for that service than lawyers who do not advertise. Therefore, if the state removes

any of its current restrictions, such as the one against advertisements that do not specify fee

arrangements, overall consumer legal costs will be lower than if the state retains its current

restrictions

紅字說:做廣告提供某一個特別服務的律師收費少.

藍字說:如果取消任意一個限制.

可以看出,他的推理犯了偷換概念的錯誤.:

1) 限制少了-->做廣告的律師多了

2)做廣告提供某一個特別服務的律師收費少

3)如果取消任意一個限制,整體費用都會減少.

但是,任意一個限制的取消,並不等於所有增加的廣告都是針對文中所提到的特別服務.

ETS狠在綠字的地方,所舉的例子只是限制中的一種,確很容易讓人把個別跟整體聯繫等同

 Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion drawn above?

14. Opponents of laws that require automobile drivers and passengers to wear seat belts argue that in a free society people have the right to take risks as long as the people do not harm other as a result of taking the risks. As a result, they conclude that it should be each person's decision whether or not to wear a seat belt. 

法律規範駕駛人及乘客攜安全帶  為此反對者主張 人們在不傷害他人的情況下有權承擔風險 此反對者結論出人們有權決定是否攜安全帶

如果要推翻結論 就說不攜安全帶會傷害他人

A many new cars are built with seat belts that automatically fasten繫緊 when someone sits in the front seat .無關
B automobile insurance rates for all automobile owners are higher because of the need to pay for the increased injuries of deaths of people not wearing seat belts .所有的人都要負擔因為未攜安全帶而受傷者的保險費用  取非 所有的人不必負擔因為未攜安全帶而受傷者的保險費用
C passages in airplanes are required to wear seat belts during takeoffs and landings .這是規定無關
D.the rate of automobile fatalities意外事故死亡 in states that do not have mandatory seat belt laws is greater than the rate of fatalities in states that do have such laws. 沒攜安全帶死亡的人比有攜安全帶的人多   支持結論
E in automobile accidents ,a great number of passengers who do not wear seat belts are injured than are passengers who do wear seat belts支持

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the home builder's argument?

18. A proposed ordinance requires the installation in new homes of sprinklers automatically triggered by the presence of a fire. However, a home builder argued that because more than ninety percent of residential fires are extinguished by a household member, residential sprinklers would only marginally decrease property damage caused by residential fires.

依項建議的條例要求

在新家安裝當火災發生時自動觸發的灑水器,然而建築工人主張因為超過90%住宅區的火災都是被家庭成員所撲,所以灑水器只能減少些微由住宅火災所引起的損害

 本提著眼在要不要裝灑水器   

90%家庭成員會撲滅火災因  不需要裝灑水器果

A. most individuals have no formal training in how to extinguish fires.

B. Since new homes are only a tiny percentage of available housing in the city, the new ordinance would be extremely narrow in scope.

C. The installation of smoke detectors in new residences costs significantly less than the installation of sprinklers.

D. In the city where the ordinance was proposed, the average time required by the fire department to respond to a fire was less than the national average. 不是比較的問題

E. The largest proportion of property damage that results from residential fires is caused by fires that start when no household member is present. 大部分的火災導致的

財產損害 起因於沒有家庭成員在場的situation  取非  家庭成員在場 撲滅火災 支持主張

Which is the following, if true, most seriously weakens the conclusion above?

27. Red blood cells in which the malarial-fever parasite resides are eliminated from a person's body after 120days. Because the parasite cannot travel to a new generation of red blood cells, any fever that develops in a person more than 120 days after that person has moved to a malaria-free region is not due to the malarial parasite.

在瘧疾熱寄生蟲寄宿的紅血球在120天後可以從人體中消失,因為 寄生蟲並不能傳遞到新生的紅血球上,任何在人類離開瘧疾區120天後還產生的熱病並不是因為瘧疾熱寄生蟲的原因.

這題是要削弱結論 第一句開頭是背景 最後一句結論說is not due to malarial parasite 所以如果要削弱結論還是要歸因於malarial parasite

The conclusion:

any fever that develops in a person more than 120 days after that person has moved to a malaria-free region is not due to the malarial parasite.

A. The fever caused by the malarial parasite may resemble雷同 the fever caused by flu viruses.無關
B. The anopheles mosquito, which is the principal insect carrier of the malarial parasite, has been eradicated絕跡 in many parts of the world.跟蚊子無關
C. Many malarial symptoms症狀 other than the fever, which can be suppressed with anti-malarial medication, can reappear within 120 days after the medication is discontinued.其實我本來選這一題 仔細一看can reappear within 120 days
D. In some cases, the parasite that causes malarial fever travels to cells of the spleen脾臟, which are less frequently eliminated from a person's body than are red blood cells.這些parasite會寄生到脾臟 在這個地方比起寄生在紅血球不易被消滅 換句或說120天後還是有可能有熱病

取非  which are (not less) frequently eliminated from a person's body than are red blood cells 所以還是會被消滅
E. In any region infested with malaria-carrying mosquitoes, there are individuals who appear to be immune to malaria.無關

Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the health officials' explanation for the lower incidence發病 of the disease?

29. The number of people diagnosed as having a certain intestinal腸 disease has dropped significantly in a rural county this year, as compared to last year, Health officials attribute this decrease entirely to improved sanitary conditions at water-treatment plants, which made for cleaner water this year and thus reduced the incidence of the disease.
今年診斷出大多數人所患的腸道疾病顯著的下降 和去年相比

健康官員把這種下降歸因於水處理場衛生情況的改善 因此減少了腸道疾病的產生

這題還是因果關係  sanitary condition 改善因 intestinal disease 下降果 

把這兩個關係分開  用結論的具體性去區分找答案
(A) Many new water-treatment plants have been built in the last five years in the rural county.無關
(B) Bottled spring water has not been consumed in significantly different quantities by people diagnosed as having the intestinal disease, as compared to people who did not contract the disease. 跟sanitary condition 及intestinal disease無關
(C) Because of a new diagnostic technique, many people who until this year would have been diagnosed as having the intestinal disease are now correctly diagnosed as suffering from intestinal ulcers.

因為診斷技術改良 診斷出正確的疾病到導致原診斷出腸道疾病的數量減少  取非 並沒有診斷出新的疾病are not now correctly diagnosed as suffering from intestinal ulcers.支持結論
(D) Because of medical advances this year, far fewer people who contract the intestinal disease will develop severe cases of the disease.支持
(E) The water in the rural county was brought up to the sanitary standards of the water in neighboring counties ten years ago.人家在講今年啦 無關

Which of the following, assuming that it is a realistic possibility, argues most strongly against the suggestion above?

31. Some who favor putting governmental enterprises into private hands suggest that conservation objectives would in general be better served if private environmental groups were put in charge of operating and financing the national park system, which is now run by the government.

 從if開頭 下一個條件 如果現在由政府經營的國家公園環境由私人企業負責營運及財政這些贊成把國營企業較給私人企業的人建議這會是一個好的保護計畫

A. Those seeking to abolish all restrictions on exploiting the natural resources of the parks might join the private environmental groups as members and eventually take over their leadership.

那些尋求廢除對開發公園自然資源的限制的人可能會作為成員加入那些私有的環境集團，並逐漸取得那些集團的領導權。 取非  那些人不會加入私人集團取得領導權

B. Private environmental groups might not always agree on the best ways to achieve conservation objectives.

B indicates the potential for disagreement among various private environmental groups, but it does not suggest that disagreements could not be resolved. 不同意見也可以得到解決, 也可以提高conservation objectives . B莫凌兩可, 可能更好, 也可能更糟, 所以不會better than before. 且題目要求 most strongly against the suggestion above.

C. If they wished to extend the park system, the private environmental groups might have to seek contributions from major donors and general public.   無關

D. There might be competition among private environmental groups for control of certain park areas. 無關

E. Some endangered species, such as the California condor, might die out despite the best efforts of the private environmental groups, even if those groups are not hampered by insufficient resources. 無關

Which of the following, if it were discovered, would be pertinent evidence against the speculation above? 

39. Most archaeologists have held that people first reached the Americas less than 20,000 years ago by crossing a land bridge into North America. But recent discoveries of human shelters in South America dating from 32,000 years ago have led researchers to speculate that people arrived in South America first, after voyaging across the Pacific, and then spread northward. 

第一句背景知識  But後面比較重要 有recent要注意

現在找一個證據推翻前面的第二句話 

A. A rock shelter near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, contains evidence of use by human beings 19,000 years ago. 不到32000 支持

B. Some North American sites of human habitation predate any sites found in South America.

這邊用了some  後面接any site  所以比任何一個南美的site都要早 取非 沒有任一個比南美早 支持結論

C. The climate is warmer at the 32,000-year-old South American site than at the oldest known North American site. 無關

D. The site in South America that was occupied 32,000 years ago was continuously occupied until 6,000 years ago.  無關

41. Since the mayor’s publicity campaign for Greenville’s bus service began six months ago, morning automobile traffic into the midtown area of the city has decreased seven percent. During the same period, there has been an equivalent rise in the number of persons riding buses into the midtown area. Obviously, the mayor’s publicity campaign has convinced many people to leave their cars at home and ride the bus to work.

since 表背景原因  mayor提供了一個政策 bus service因   導致 近midtown的車輛減少果

選一個選項來始因不會導致果

所以一種削弱的方法就是否定市長遊說與乘巴士上班之間的因果關係

A. Fares for all bus routes in Greenville have risen an average of five percent during the past six months.支持

B. The mayor of Greenville rides the bus to City Hall in the city’s midtown area.市長在作秀

C. Road reconstruction has greatly reduced the number of lanes available to commuters in major streets leading to the midtown area during the past six months.提供了別的因素  取非 道路修築不會導致近城的車道減少  所以大家搭巴士人數不變  支持

D. The number of buses entering the midtown area of Greenville during the morning hours is exactly the same now as it was one year ago.

E. Surveys show that longtime bus riders are no more satisfied with the Greenville bus service than they were before the mayor’s publicity campaign began.無關

Which of the following, if true, would tend to weaken most seriously the prediction of scientific secrecy 祕密 described above?

43.With the emergence of biotechnology companies,it was feared that they would impose silence about proprietary results on their in-house researchers and their academic consultants. This constraint, in turn, would slow the development of biological science and engineering.

隨著生物科技公司的出現, 他們將會對所有研究結果及專業諮詢加上禁口令,反之 這限制會導致延緩生物科技工程的發展

 所以這題還是因果關係  禁口令因   導致延緩生物科技工程的發展果 

可能的答案是要weaken most seriously the prediction of scientific secrecy

(A) Biotechnological research funded by industry has reached some conclusions that are of major scientific importance.無關

(B)When the results of scientific research are kept secret, independent researchers are unable to build on those results.支持

(C)Since the research priorities of biotechnology companies are not the same as those of academic institutions, the financial support of research by such companies distorts the research agenda日常工作.

(D)To enhance the companies' standing in the scientific community, the biotechnology companies encourage employees to publish their results, especially results that are important.強化公司地位  生技公司鼓勵員工發表結果 特別是重要的成果  無因無果 取非 不支持發表成果

(E)Biotechnology companies devote some of their research resourced to problems that are of fundamental scientific importance and that are not expected to produce immediate practical applications.

 E 是說這些生物科技公司投入部分資源去進行那些不會馬上實現應用經濟價值的基礎研究，這種研究只是in-house researchers and their academic consultants的一部分罷了（研究主要分為基礎性研究和應用性研究），和scientific secrecy，沒有關係,僅僅是consistent with that argument

第一句 講結論不是背景喔  然後提例子去支持它的論點 而且題目是要weaken第一句  get little use out ofsports equipment

後面拿jogging shoes來證明很少好好用來慢跑 可是拿jogging shoes 來證明可靠嗎 搞不好有其他的運動可代表

17%的美國成人有jogging shoes 但是只有45%的人一年慢跑一次 17%的人一個禮拜慢跑超過一次

題目是要削弱most consumers get little use out of the sports equipment they purchase

文章說：買了跑鞋的人跑步的少，因此跑鞋沒有被很好地利用。

削弱方向：跑鞋除用來跑步外，還有其它用途

作者是犯了「偷換概念」的錯誤，即 把 「用跑鞋作運動」 與 「用跑鞋跑步」 等同為一個概念。